The Projection Desk was founded with the goal of providing transparent, rigorous, and data-driven election analysis. Our mission is to distinguish between what public opinion data currently shows and what the evidence suggests will ultimately happen.
Through careful evaluation of polling data and the development of a unique forecasting methodology, we aim to provide a clearer and more accurate understanding of electoral trends.
Our analysis is built entirely from publicly available polling data from reputable survey organizations, including academic institutions, professional polling firms, and established research organizations.
We evaluate polls based on their reliability, methodology, and historical performance rather than treating every survey equally. Our goal is not simply to collect polls, but to determine which data provides the most meaningful insight into the state of a race.
At The Projection Desk, we distinguish between the polling aggregate and our forecast.
The current state of public polling: a weighted summary of available surveys showing where the race stands based on the data collected so far.
Our independent projection of the eventual outcome, incorporating polling quality, reliability, campaign funds, candidate fundamentals, and history to estimate where the race is most likely headed.
The aggregate describes what polls see in the present. The forecast is our evaluation of what will happen on election day.
Our methodology is designed to evaluate the strength and reliability of each poll before incorporating it into our analysis. Polls are weighted based on several factors, including:
By accounting for these differences, our model ensures that higher-quality and more reliable polling data has a greater influence on our analysis.
Unlike many aggregators that primarily combine available polling data, The Projection Desk applies a more rigorous standard when evaluating and weighting polls.
We believe that not all polls provide the same level of information. Our methodology places a higher bar on the data included in our analysis, requiring careful evaluation of polling organizations and survey characteristics before determining their influence.
The formula behind our model was developed through extensive research, testing, and refinement to create a system that balances accuracy with transparency. Rather than simply following the polling average, we focus on identifying the most reliable signals within the data.
Our goal is not to produce the most reactive forecast — it is to produce one built on a stronger foundation.
For press inquiries, research collaborations, business partnerships, or questions regarding our forecasts and methodology, please contact:
theprojectiondesk@gmail.comThe Projection Desk is committed to transparency and welcomes opportunities to discuss our analysis, methodology, and approach to election forecasting.
