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The Projection DeskThe Projection Desk

Precision-first polling aggregation and election forecasting. Built to measure elections as accurately as possible.

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© 2026 The Projection Desk. Data for informational purposes only.

Not affiliated with any campaign, party, or pollster.

National Polls

Weighted national averages for the generic congressional ballot and Trump approval rating. Every weight factor is documented below so you can verify the numbers.

2026 Generic Ballot

Democrats vs. Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.

Democratic

47.3%

Republican

41.5%

Democratic margin

D+5.8

Polls in aggregate

29

0 pollsters newly rated

Generic Ballot Trend

Rolling 4-week weighted average over time

Poll Weight Breakdown

PollsterGradeDemRepMarginSamplePop.Recency
Cygnal PoliticalA-49.0%42.0%D+7.01,500Likely Voters37d / 0.16
IpsosA-42.0%37.0%D+5.03,542Registered Voters43d / 0.12
YouGovC46.0%40.0%D+6.01,420Registered Voters35d / 0.17
Big Data PollC50.0%39.0%D+11.02,617Likely Voters47d / 0.10
Quantus InsightsC49.0%43.0%D+6.01,048Likely Voters40d / 0.14
YouGovC46.0%42.0%D+4.01,473Registered Voters42d / 0.12
CNNC47.0%39.0%D+8.02,410Adults50d / 0.09
YouGovC46.0%42.0%D+4.01,407Registered Voters49d / 0.09
IpsosA-40.0%38.0%D+2.01,003Registered Voters50d / 0.09
Marquette Law SchoolA51.0%45.0%D+6.0572Likely Voters49d / 0.09
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Trump Approval

Approve vs. disapprove of Trump's job performance.

Approve

41.6%

Disapprove

56.4%

Net approve

-14.8

Polls in aggregate

66

0 pollsters newly rated

Approval Trend

Rolling 4-week weighted average over time

Poll Weight Breakdown

PollsterGradeApproveDisapproveSamplePop.Recency
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters33d / 0.20
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters35d / 0.18
Morning ConsultC43.0%55.0%2,200Registered Voters36d / 0.17
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%56.0%1,500Likely Voters36d / 0.17
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%56.0%1,500Likely Voters37d / 0.16
IpsosA-38.0%61.0%3,542Registered Voters43d / 0.12
YouGovC38.0%61.0%1,420Registered Voters35d / 0.17
Rasmussen ReportsC44.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters40d / 0.14
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters42d / 0.13
Morning ConsultC43.0%54.0%2,200Registered Voters43d / 0.12
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