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The Projection DeskThe Projection Desk

Precision-first polling aggregation and election forecasting. Built to measure elections as accurately as possible.

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© 2026 The Projection Desk. Data for informational purposes only.

Not affiliated with any campaign, party, or pollster.

National Polls

Weighted national averages for the generic congressional ballot and Trump approval rating. Every weight factor is documented below so you can verify the numbers.

2026 Generic Ballot

Democrats vs. Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.

Democratic

47.4%

Republican

42.5%

Democratic margin

D+4.9

Polls in aggregate

20

0 pollsters newly rated

Generic Ballot Trend

Rolling 4-week weighted average over time

Poll Weight Breakdown

PollsterGradeDemRepMarginSamplePop.Recency
IpsosA-40.0%38.0%D+2.01,003Registered Voters4d / 0.82
Morning ConsultC46.0%43.0%D+3.02,200Registered Voters11d / 0.58
Emerson CollegeB+53.0%42.0%D+11.01,100Likely Voters10d / 0.62
IpsosA-48.0%45.0%D+3.02,648Registered Voters19d / 0.40
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchB+53.0%46.0%D+7.01,003Registered Voters11d / 0.59
RMG ResearchC47.0%45.0%D+2.02,000Registered Voters16d / 0.46
J. L. PartnersC50.0%41.0%D+9.01,021Registered Voters11d / 0.59
Pew ResearchC43.0%37.0%D+6.02,779Registered Voters20d / 0.37
HarrisXC51.0%49.0%D+2.01,776Registered Voters18d / 0.42
YouGovC46.0%42.0%D+4.01,450Registered Voters18d / 0.42
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Trump Approval

Approve vs. disapprove of Trump's job performance.

Approve

41.9%

Disapprove

56.0%

Net approve

-14.1

Polls in aggregate

40

0 pollsters newly rated

Approval Trend

Rolling 4-week weighted average over time

Poll Weight Breakdown

PollsterGradeApproveDisapproveSamplePop.Recency
Morning ConsultC45.0%52.0%2,200Registered Voters4d / 0.82
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%56.0%1,500Likely Voters6d / 0.74
IpsosA-39.0%60.0%1,003Registered Voters4d / 0.82
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters8d / 0.67
YouGovC39.0%61.0%2,193Adults6d / 0.74
Rasmussen ReportsC42.0%57.0%1,500Likely Voters10d / 0.62
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%56.0%1,500Likely Voters10d / 0.61
Morning ConsultC44.0%53.0%2,200Registered Voters11d / 0.58
Emerson CollegeB+39.0%57.0%1,100Likely Voters10d / 0.62
Rasmussen ReportsC44.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters12d / 0.56
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