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The Projection DeskThe Projection Desk

Precision-first polling aggregation and election forecasting. Built to measure elections as accurately as possible.

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© 2026 The Projection Desk. Data for informational purposes only.

Not affiliated with any campaign, party, or pollster.

National Polls

Weighted national averages for the generic congressional ballot and Trump approval rating. Every weight factor is documented below so you can verify the numbers.

2026 Generic Ballot

Democrats vs. Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.

Democratic

47.3%

Republican

41.5%

Democratic margin

D+5.8

Polls in aggregate

29

0 pollsters newly rated

Generic Ballot Trend

Rolling 4-week weighted average over time

Poll Weight Breakdown

PollsterGradeDemRepMarginSamplePop.Recency
Cygnal PoliticalA-49.0%42.0%D+7.01,500Likely Voters83d / 0.02
IpsosA-42.0%37.0%D+5.03,542Registered Voters89d / 0.01
YouGovC46.0%40.0%D+6.01,420Registered Voters81d / 0.02
Big Data PollC50.0%39.0%D+11.02,617Likely Voters92d / 0.01
Quantus InsightsC49.0%43.0%D+6.01,048Likely Voters86d / 0.01
YouGovC46.0%42.0%D+4.01,473Registered Voters88d / 0.01
CNNC47.0%39.0%D+8.02,410Adults95d / 0.01
YouGovC46.0%42.0%D+4.01,407Registered Voters94d / 0.01
IpsosA-40.0%38.0%D+2.01,003Registered Voters95d / 0.01
Marquette Law SchoolA51.0%45.0%D+6.0572Likely Voters95d / 0.01
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Trump Approval

Approve vs. disapprove of Trump's job performance.

Approve

41.6%

Disapprove

56.4%

Net approve

-14.8

Polls in aggregate

66

0 pollsters newly rated

Approval Trend

Rolling 4-week weighted average over time

Poll Weight Breakdown

PollsterGradeApproveDisapproveSamplePop.Recency
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters78d / 0.02
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters80d / 0.02
Morning ConsultC43.0%55.0%2,200Registered Voters81d / 0.02
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%56.0%1,500Likely Voters81d / 0.02
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%56.0%1,500Likely Voters82d / 0.02
IpsosA-38.0%61.0%3,542Registered Voters89d / 0.01
YouGovC38.0%61.0%1,420Registered Voters81d / 0.02
Rasmussen ReportsC44.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters85d / 0.01
Rasmussen ReportsC43.0%55.0%1,500Likely Voters87d / 0.01
Morning ConsultC43.0%54.0%2,200Registered Voters88d / 0.01
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