The Projection Desk

Home Forecasts National Polls State Polls About

The Projection Desk

Precision-first polling aggregation and election forecasting. Built to measure elections as accurately as possible.

Platform

National Average
State Polls
Forecasts

Resources

About
Twitter
Instagram

© 2026 The Projection Desk. Data for informational purposes only.

Not affiliated with any campaign, party, or pollster.

Election Forecasts

Official Projection Desk editorial forecasts — entered and maintained by our team, not computed from polling aggregates. Hover any state on the maps below for full forecast details including win probabilities.

Last race forecast update: 7/22/2026, 6:13:44 AM

2026 Senate majority forecast

Democratic seats

49

Republican seats

51

Projected majority: Republicans

Last updated Jul 20, 2026, 8:13 AM

U.S. Senate Forecast

2026 Senate races color-coded by projected margin.

Safe D (> D+10)

Likely D (D+5–10)

Lean D (D+0.1–5)

Even

Lean R (R+0.1–5)

Likely R (R+5–10)

Safe R (> R+10)

No race

Governor Forecast

2026 gubernatorial races color-coded by projected margin.

Safe D (> D+10)

Likely D (D+5–10)

Lean D (D+0.1–5)

Even

Lean R (R+0.1–5)

Likely R (R+5–10)

Safe R (> R+10)

No race

U.S. House Control

Projection Desk editorial forecast for which party will control the House.

Democrats win House

84.0%

Republicans win House

16.0%

Last updated Jul 17, 2026, 12:22 AM