Democratic
42.3%
David Jolly
Republican
42.7%
Byron Donalds
Margin
R+0.4
Leader: Byron Donalds
Polls in aggregate
12
Current margin
R+0.4
12 polls · Last updated Jul 17, 2026 · Weighted aggregate trend
| Pollster | Grade | Jolly | Donalds | Margin | Sample | Pop. | Recency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida | B | 41.0% | 46.0% | R+5.0 | 848 | Likely Voters | 62d / 0.05 |
| Change Research | C | 46.0% | 40.0% | D+6.0 | 1,004 | Likely Voters | 65d / 0.04 |
| Kaplan Strategies | C | 30.0% | 35.0% | R+5.0 | 668 | Likely Voters | 96d / 0.01 |
| Change Research | C |
| 46.0% |
| 42.0% |
| D+4.0 |
| 1,593 |
| Likely Voters |
| 121d / 0.00 |
| Cherry Communications | C | 39.0% | 47.0% | R+8.0 | 604 | Likely Voters | 131d / 0.00 |
| Stetson University | C | 40.0% | 47.0% | R+7.0 | 848 | Likely Voters | 162d / 0.00 |
| MDW Communications | C | 41.0% | 41.0% | EVEN | 1,834 | Likely Voters | 166d / 0.00 |
| Emerson College | B+ | 39.0% | 44.0% | R+5.0 | 1,125 | Likely Voters | 167d / 0.00 |
| Echelon Insights | C | 43.0% | 49.0% | R+6.0 | 406 | Likely Voters | 160d / 0.00 |
| University of North Florida | B | 36.0% | 42.0% | R+6.0 | 776 | Likely Voters | 199d / 0.00 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | C | 42.0% | 36.0% | D+6.0 | 124 | Likely Voters | 205d / 0.00 |
| Targoz Market Research | C | 36.0% | 41.0% | R+5.0 | 1,200 | Registered Voters | 210d / 0.00 |
