Democratic
42.4%
Alex Vindman
Republican
47.5%
Ashley Moody
Margin
R+5.1
Leader: Ashley Moody
Polls in aggregate
12
Current margin
R+5.1
12 polls · Last updated Jul 17, 2026 · Weighted aggregate trend
| Pollster | Grade | Vindman | Moody | Margin | Sample | Pop. | Recency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida | B | 40.0% | 50.0% | R+10.0 | 848 | Likely Voters | 108d / 0.01 |
| Change Research | C | 42.0% | 46.0% | R+4.0 | 1,004 | Likely Voters | 110d / 0.00 |
| Change Research | C | 46.0% | 46.0% | EVEN | 1,015 | Likely Voters | 115d / 0.00 |
| Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) |
| 43.0% |
| 46.0% |
| R+3.0 |
| 1,000 |
| Likely Voters |
| 162d / 0.00 |
| Change Research | C | 47.0% | 45.0% | D+2.0 | 1,593 | Likely Voters | 167d / 0.00 |
| Cherry Communications | C | 40.0% | 48.0% | R+8.0 | 604 | Likely Voters | 176d / 0.00 |
| Stetson University | C | 42.0% | 49.0% | R+7.0 | 434 | Likely Voters | 208d / 0.00 |
| Echelon Insights | C | 43.0% | 50.0% | R+7.0 | 406 | Likely Voters | 205d / 0.00 |
| MDW Communications | C | 42.0% | 43.0% | R+1.0 | 1,834 | Likely Voters | 212d / 0.00 |
| Public Policy Polling | C | 40.0% | 43.0% | R+3.0 | 574 | Registered Voters | 209d / 0.00 |
| Emerson College | B+ | 38.0% | 46.0% | R+8.0 | 1,125 | Likely Voters | 212d / 0.00 |
| University of North Florida | B | 38.0% | 45.0% | R+7.0 | 772 | Likely Voters | 245d / 0.00 |
