Democratic
45.7%
Josh Turek
Republican
47.5%
Ashley Hinson
Margin
R+1.8
Leader: Ashley Hinson
Polls in aggregate
9
Current margin
R+1.8
9 polls · Last updated Aug 4, 2026 · Weighted aggregate trend
| Pollster | Grade | Turek | Hinson | Margin | Sample | Pop. | Recency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | B+ | 45.0% | 48.0% | R+3.0 | 712 | Likely Voters | 41d / 0.13 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | B+ | 50.0% | 46.0% | D+4.0 | 1,003 | Registered Voters | 80d / 0.02 |
| Siena College | A- | 46.0% | 48.0% | R+2.0 | 600 | Likely Voters | 84d / 0.02 |
| Cygnal Political | A- |
| 44.0% |
| 46.0% |
| R+2.0 |
| 600 |
| Likely Voters |
| 87d / 0.01 |
| Global Strategy Group | C | 47.0% | 45.0% | D+2.0 | 1,000 | Likely Voters | 95d / 0.01 |
| Public Policy Polling | C | 46.0% | 46.0% | EVEN | 557 | Registered Voters | 101d / 0.01 |
| Echelon Insights | C | 46.0% | 45.0% | D+1.0 | 377 | Likely Voters | 160d / 0.00 |
| GBAO | C | 43.0% | 47.0% | R+4.0 | 1,200 | Likely Voters | 184d / 0.00 |
| Change Research | C | 41.0% | 44.0% | R+3.0 | 1,108 | Likely Voters | 246d / 0.00 |
