Democratic
47.2%
James Talarico
Republican
45.9%
Ken Paxton
Margin
D+1.4
Leader: James Talarico
Polls in aggregate
20
Current margin
D+1.4
20 polls · Last updated Aug 10, 2026 · Weighted aggregate trend
| Pollster | Grade | Talarico | Paxton | Margin | Sample | Pop. | Recency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | B+ | 46.0% | 47.0% | R+1.0 | 1,000 | Likely Voters | 34d / 0.18 |
| YouGov | C | 47.0% | 45.0% | D+2.0 | 1,200 | Likely Voters | 46d / 0.10 |
| Siena College | A- | 47.0% | 43.0% | D+4.0 | 619 | Likely Voters | 46d / 0.10 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | B+ |
| 51.0% |
| 48.0% |
| D+3.0 |
| 1,006 |
| Registered Voters |
| 50d / 0.09 |
| YouGov | C | 48.0% | 45.0% | D+3.0 | 1,001 | Likely Voters | 52d / 0.08 |
| Siena College | A- | 47.0% | 47.0% | EVEN | 656 | Likely Voters | 82d / 0.02 |
| A2 Insights | C | 48.0% | 46.0% | D+2.0 | 618 | Likely Voters | 79d / 0.02 |
| SoCal Strategies | C | 47.0% | 49.0% | R+2.0 | 800 | Likely Voters | 84d / 0.02 |
| YouGov | C | 42.0% | 43.0% | R+1.0 | 1,200 | Registered Voters | 96d / 0.01 |
| Siena College | A- | 46.0% | 46.0% | EVEN | 807 | Likely Voters | 102d / 0.01 |
| Quantus Insights | C | 43.0% | 45.0% | R+2.0 | 800 | Likely Voters | 101d / 0.01 |
| Slingshot Strategies | C | 47.0% | 44.0% | D+3.0 | 1,670 | Likely Voters | 108d / 0.01 |
| Public Policy Polling | C | 45.0% | 38.0% | D+7.0 | 643 | Registered Voters | 113d / 0.00 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research | C | 45.0% | 45.0% | EVEN | 1,223 | Likely Voters | 137d / 0.00 |
| Slingshot Strategies | C | 46.0% | 41.0% | D+5.0 | 1,018 | Likely Voters | 147d / 0.00 |
| YouGov | C | 42.0% | 34.0% | D+8.0 | 1,200 | Registered Voters | 151d / 0.00 |
| Impact Research/National Research | C | 44.0% | 43.0% | D+1.0 | 900 | Likely Voters | 182d / 0.00 |
| Public Policy Polling | C | 47.0% | 45.0% | D+2.0 | 576 | Registered Voters | 192d / 0.00 |
| University of Houston | C | 44.0% | 46.0% | R+2.0 | 1,502 | Likely Voters | 230d / 0.00 |
| Emerson College | B+ | 46.0% | 46.0% | EVEN | 1,165 | Registered Voters | 245d / 0.00 |
