Democratic
46.2%
James Talarico
Republican
45.8%
Ken Paxton
Margin
D+0.3
Leader: James Talarico
Polls in aggregate
15
Current margin
D+0.3
15 polls · Last updated Jun 28, 2026 · Weighted aggregate trend
| Pollster | Grade | Talarico | Paxton | Margin | Sample | Pop. | Recency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | A- | 47.0% | 47.0% | EVEN | 656 | Likely Voters | 36d / 0.17 |
| A2 Insights | C | 48.0% | 46.0% | D+2.0 | 618 | Likely Voters | 34d / 0.19 |
| SoCal Strategies | C | 47.0% | 49.0% | R+2.0 | 800 | Likely Voters | 38d / 0.15 |
| YouGov | C |
| 42.0% |
| 43.0% |
| R+1.0 |
| 1,200 |
| Registered Voters |
| 51d / 0.08 |
| Siena College | A- | 46.0% | 46.0% | EVEN | 807 | Likely Voters | 57d / 0.06 |
| Quantus Insights | C | 43.0% | 45.0% | R+2.0 | 800 | Likely Voters | 56d / 0.06 |
| Slingshot Strategies | C | 47.0% | 44.0% | D+3.0 | 1,670 | Likely Voters | 63d / 0.04 |
| Public Policy Polling | C | 45.0% | 38.0% | D+7.0 | 643 | Registered Voters | 68d / 0.04 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research | C | 45.0% | 45.0% | EVEN | 1,223 | Likely Voters | 91d / 0.01 |
| Slingshot Strategies | C | 46.0% | 41.0% | D+5.0 | 1,018 | Likely Voters | 102d / 0.01 |
| YouGov | C | 42.0% | 34.0% | D+8.0 | 1,200 | Registered Voters | 105d / 0.01 |
| Impact Research/National Research | C | 44.0% | 43.0% | D+1.0 | 900 | Likely Voters | 137d / 0.00 |
| Public Policy Polling | C | 47.0% | 45.0% | D+2.0 | 576 | Registered Voters | 147d / 0.00 |
| University of Houston | C | 44.0% | 46.0% | R+2.0 | 1,502 | Likely Voters | 185d / 0.00 |
| Emerson College | B+ | 46.0% | 46.0% | EVEN | 1,165 | Registered Voters | 199d / 0.00 |
